Gold’s Pivotal Role

China has signaled it is going to propose plans this year to allow freer flows of the Yuan both in and out of the nation as part of measures to loosen control over the Yuan and interest rates. It was expected that full and free convertibility after 2022, but it’s clear that the program is moving at an accelerated pace. How far this next phase of convertibility will go has to be seen at the end of this year.

It’s understandable that the process will be gingerly handled so as to dovetail into the currency world without causing crises there. We have to always remember that China will do what suits China and not the outside world. But the inescapable conclusion we have to reach is that the Yuan is set to replace the U.S. Dollar to a greater or lesser extent as it arrives on the world stage. This will inevitably lead to more global uncertainty and instability as dollar hegemony is cracked and more currency volatility batters the currency world. Market reactions could well discount the future and cause premature reactions that, we believe, will benefit gold.

We feel it is inevitable that –in line with the World Gold Council sponsored OMFIF(Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum) report on the subject — from which we will quote freely, that gold will move to a pivotal role in the monetary system over time.  It is the beginning of substantial structural changes to the global financial system and in particular to the gold world.

This will happen at a time when the developed world’s financial system is at a structurally weak stage, struggling to precipitate economic growth and somehow coordinate the 3-speed growth within itself without heading into extended recessions across it. It is certainly time to stand back from a local national perspective and extrapolate the global economic and financial currents. We believe that the demand for gold and silver will find another facet in the growing monetary role precious metals will play in the future.

The world is preparing for possible twin shocks from the parlous position of the two main reserve currencies: the dollar and the euro. As China weighs up its options for joining in the reserve asset game, gold, the official asset that plays no formal part in the monetary system yet, has never really gone away and is poised, once again, to play a pivotal role. Many dismiss gold as a relic of the past or as an inadequate hedge against inflation. But from an asset management point of view, as well as on the basis of political analysis, gold has a lot going for it; it correlates negatively with the USD, and no other reserve asset seems safe from the coming USD shock.

If the specter of collapse continues to haunt the main reserve assets and on the expectation that the Yuan will take time to get into its stride, then the world will rush to safe-havens as currency pressures mount. With the expanded convertibility of the Chinese Yuan due by the end of this year, it would be wise to draw up contingency plans now, for such eventualities.

Gold may be the only reserve asset with the requisite size, clout and history to help ward off the strains that will beset the world monetary system from 2014 onwards.

Let’s look at the main features of this time of transition now taking place:

1. The West has been assailed by the longest-running economic crisis since the 1930s, undermined by the shift of manufacturing from West to East, shifting wealth in the process. In the past the developed world enjoyed 80% of the world’s income, while hosting 20% of its population. By 2020, according to Wolfensohn, the ex-head of the World Bank, this will change to 35% of the globe’s income going to the developed world and 65% of it going to the emerging world and so weakening the natural pull of the U.S. and European currencies.
2. Emerging nations, led by China have amassed huge surpluses in the form of massive monetary reserves that have become the most potent factor behind reserve diversification into other assets, including gold. The I.M.F.’s belated recognition in December 2012 of the occasional need for temporary capital controls demonstrates how dealing with world imbalances in a way consistent with emerging market needs has become a new force in international policy thinking.

1. The Chinese have followed a careful preparatory course for the Yuan to take on this reserve currency role, developing its banking system to facilitate this alongside the signing of many trade agreements (U.K. Australia, Brazil, etc.) in which the Yuan will be used to the exclusion of the USD. Now it is to be a currency independent of USD-oriented currencies and acting solely in the interests of China.
2. Critically the sheer size of the China-oriented trade bloc Asia –now the world’s second largest and moving to first position, possibly as early as 2016—is coming into a position to dictate to the rest of the world the monetary system acceptable to the east. It’s clear that China does not want to ‘fit into’ the present monetary system skewed to the retention of the United States’ hold on political, economic and financial supremacy. As an empire on the rise, it’s avoiding the pitfalls of rising through the ranks and will set its own standards that it hopes will be powerful enough to make others follow.
3. With the last 42 years of trying to dismantle gold’s position as effective money, it remains recognized as an important monetary asset in the global monetary system. The 40-year experiment with unbacked currencies, designed to reinforce and make useful the power of the developed world, globally, is stumbling, for a variety of reasons. In so doing it has left gold ready to fill the vacuum created by the evident failings of the dollar and the euro, and the not-yet requited ambitions of the Yuan.

1. For gold, it’s not important that China fulfill its ambitions. What’s relevant are the changes in the balance of power, both economic and financial, that will precipitate stresses and strains, making the use of an internationally-respected and valued asset critical to retain continuity in the global monetary system.
2. With China using an agency to buy not only local production of gold (the largest in the world now) and encouraging its own citizens to buy gold, we’ve already seen an ongoing propensity towards building up stocks of monetary gold, reflecting their cultural attachment to it that goes back millennia, is itself a powerful factor in the equation.

The role that gold would have to play would have to be consistent with the ambitions and dictates of first China then accepted by the developed world in its attempts to hold onto the advantages of globalization and international trade. We would see some form of indexation of currencies to gold or if acceptable to the Chinese the SDR and its components. In this way gold would act as a “value-anchor” initially suggested by the World Bank head Robert Zoellick.

Gold would not need to be paid out, but its dollar or Yuan or Rouble equivalent, would be based on the currency value against gold at the time. As such, gold would act as the measure of value against which all currencies fluctuate.

If gold is kept in the wings of the monetary system the world may face a huge liquidity crunch if a combination of U.S. and European shortcomings and the natural ambitions of Asia produce an attack on the major currencies. This would open up large holes in the framework of the world’s reserve currency arrangements.

With the advent on the world stage of the Yuan, the international community will be forced to take on these challenges, either willingly ahead of currency crises or in the midst of them. We feel that political pressures will lead to a recognition of these changes only in the midst of crises, or “currency wars,” that lie ahead of the world from 2014 onwards.

The unavoidable conclusion one can reach as to the future is that the world is headed towards the uncharted waters of a durable multi-currency reserve system, where the dollar will share its pivotal role with a range of other currencies, including the Yuan. Historical precedent and the underlying principles behind asset diversification indicate that the coming time of flux and uncertainty for worldwide reserve management will be a period when reserve holders spread their investments into a relatively wide range of assets and sectors.

Forex trading, what the hype is all about

Forex trading is all about making big money. Some investors have found it quite easy to make a large amount of money as the forex market changes daily. Forex, is the foreign exchange market. Online and offline you will find references to the forex market as FX as well. Forex trading takes place through a broker or a financial institution often where you are able to purchase other types of stocks, bonds and investments. 

When you are thinking about getting involved in the forex markets you should know you are sending money to be invested with other countries. This is done to prop up the investments of people involved in certain types of hedge funds, and in the markets overseas. The forex market could have your money invested in one market one day, and the next day your money is invested in another country. The daily changes are determined by your broker or financial institution. When reading your statements and learning more about your account, you will find that every type of currency has three letters that will represent that currency. 
For example, the United States dollars is USD, the Japanese yen is JPY, and the British pound sterling will read as GBP. You will also find that for every transaction on your account listing you will see information that looks like this: JPYzzz/GBPzzz. This means that you took your Japanese yen money and invested it into something in the British pound market. You will find many transactions from one currency to another if you have money that is scattered through out the forex markets. 
Forex markets trading by investment management firms are the companies you can trust with your money. You want to find a company that has been dealing with forex trading since the early seventies, and not someone just new on the block so you get the most for your hard earned money. It is important that you beware of companies that are popping up online, and often times from foreign countries that are stating they can get you involved in the forex markets and trading. Read the fine print, and know whom you are dealing with for the best possible protection. 
If you are interested in trading on the forex market, you will find limits for investing are different from company to company. Often times you will learn that you need a minimum of $250 or $500 while other companies will need $1000 or $10,000. The company you are dealing with will set limits in how much you need to open an account with their company. The scams that are online will tell you, that you only need a $1 or $5 to open an account, but you need to learn more about that company and where they are doing business before investing any money, this is for your own protection while dealing in forex trading and markets online.

Forex Trading - should you invest?

Forex trading is all about putting your money into other currencies, so you can gain the interest for the night, for time period or the difference in trading money all around. Forex trading does involve other assets along with money, but because you are investing in other countries and in other businesses that are dealing in other currencies the basis for the money you make or lose will be based on the trading of money.

Constant trading is done in the forex markets as time zones will vary and the markets will open in one country while another is near closing. What happens in one market will have an effect on the other countries forex markets, but it is not always bad or good, sometimes the margins of trading are near each other.

A forex market will be present when two countries are involved in trading, and when money is traded for goods, services or a combination of these things. Currency is the money that trades hands, from one to another. Often times, a bank is going to be the source of forex trading, as millions of dollars are traded daily. There is nearly two trillion dollars traded daily on the forex market. Should you get involved in forex trading? If you are already involved in the stock market, you have some idea of what forex trading really is all about.

The stock market involves buying shares of a company, and you watch how that company does, waiting for a bigger return. In the forex markets, you are purchasing items or products, or goods, and you are paying money for them. As you do this, you are gaining or losing as the currency exchange differs daily from country to country. To better prepare you for the forex markets you can learn about trading and purchasing online using free 'game' like software.

You will log on and create an account. Entering information about what you are interested in and what you want to do. The 'game' will allow you to make purchases and trades, involving different currencies, so you can then see first hand what a gain or loss will be like. As you continue on with this fake account you will see first hand how to make decisions based on what you know, which means you will have to read about the market changes or you will have to take a brokers information at value and play from there.

If you, as an individual want to be involved in forex trading, you must get involved through broker, or a financial institution. Individuals are also known as spectators, even if you are investing money because the amount of money you are investing is minimal compared to the millions of dollars that are invested by governments and by banks at any given time. This does not mean you can't get involved.  Your broker or investment advisor will be able to tell you more about how you can be involved in forex trading. In the US, there are many regulations and laws in regards to who can handle forex trading for US citizens so if you are searching the internet for a broker, be sure you read the print, and the information about where the company is located and if it is legal for you to do business with that company. 

Features of Forex Trading

Forex is the most popularly traded market in the world and when you look at the specific features of forex trading, it is easy to understand why. 

Forex – the most liquid market in the world

Forex is the most liquid market in the world, meaning that forex market spreads tend to remain tight throughout most of the day, whilst traders have the safety of the knowledge that positions and orders can always be executed. With an average turnover in excess of US$4 trillion per day being traded by governments, central banks, financial institutions, corporations and professional and retail traders, foreign exchange is the largest financial market in the world. In comparison, the New York Stock Exchange has a daily turnover of around US$50 billion.

As a City Index FX Trader, you can trade 37 currency pairs including majors, minors and exotic pairs. See our range of forex markets and spreads.

24-hour market

Forex is a 24-hour market, and is traded continuously round the clock, except on weekends, meaning that traders have unlimited access.

At City Index, our offering matches the underlying market, meaning that our platform is available to trade 24-hours a day, from Sunday evening GMT to Friday night GMT.

Leverage

Forex trading is leveraged and traders utilise this leverage to increase their exposure to currencies and magnify their potential profits. With leverage, you can control a relatively large exposure for only a small initial deposit amount in your trading account, potentially maximising your return on investment.

At City Index, we offer some of the most competitive margin rates in the retail forex industry and our ‘Leverage to Suit’ model enables you to select your preferred leverage ratios to suit your specific trading strategy and style.

It is important to remember however that leveraged forex trading involves greater risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial deposit if the market moves against you. We offer a wide range of trading tools to help you manage your trading risk.

Volatility

Foreign exchange rates can change rapidly in response to any real-time economic and political events. This offers great opportunities for traders to make profits in the forex markets. Of course, volatility can be a double-edged sword, and losses can accumulate just as quickly.

Ability to go long and short

Unlike traditional equity markets, forex trading allows you to trade and profit on any price movement up or down. As a forex trader, you can go long (buy) on a currency pair when you expect the first currency will strengthen (appreciate) against the second currency and your profits will rise in line with any increase as the exchange rate goes up. You can also go short (sell) on the currency pair when you expect the first currency will weaken (depreciate) against the second currency and your profits will rise in line with any fall in the exchange rate.

Range of Markets

At City Index, you can trade 37 currency pairs including majors, minors and exotic pairs. See our range of forex markets and spreads. This means that you can gain instant exposure to currencies such as the Kiwi or Nokki as much as Dollar or Euro.

Forex: Dollar Suffers Critical Break Ahead of Confusing NFPs

Dollar Suffers Critical Break Ahead of Confusing NFPs
Euro Rally – How Far Can it Go on ‘No Change’
Yen Crosses Finally Charge Higher but Still Trailing S&P 500

Dollar Suffers Critical Break Ahead of Confusing NFPs
Whether dollar traders’ focus rests with the currency’s risk bearings or relative monetary policy, their faith has been tested. Through this past session, EURUSD closed above 1.3850 for the first time in more than two years while the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) slipped below trendline support that has been in place since September 2012. Sentiment behind the greenback is raw, even though its fundamental cues are still a mixed bag. For a definitive driver for the benchmark’s slide this week, the positive lean on risk trends – which has lifted equities as well as FX-based carry – would be a reasonable connection. However, the dubious conviction behind the speculative build up (some say chasing yield) and the dollar’s lax correlation to the underlying current suggests this isn’t an engaged driver moving forward.

Far more influential over the listing currency is the strength of its counterparts. The Euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars in particular have leveraged impressive strength through Thursday’s session against most other counterparts. A joint appetite for carry currencies and the world’s second most liquid fiat positions the dollar in a difficult position as it struggles for momentum of its own. That said, if the greenback’s weightiest fundamental issues are cross winds, its tumble is likely to end rather quickly. An ECB rate hold does not leverage a definitive advantage for the euro over the dollar. As for carry appetite, risk trends in most forms are second guessed every step of the way. Yet, another spark may offer the dollar a more durable momentum: the February labor data.

Market reaction to the monthly employment stats is already a game in confusion, but this release promises to be a particular brand of disorder. There are many considerations to account for in this event. Recently, we’ve heard a number of Fed officials preempt the release’s implications for the central bank’s Taper policy as weather-related issues would likely cause temporary distortions. A ‘Taper-is-the-pace-absent-a-systemic-change’ seems the mantra for nearly every one of the policy officials. That being the case, disappointing data would weigh on growth and risk bearings rather than stimulus and rate forecasts. Alternatively, robust employment data ensures the steady $10 billion reductions in QE and may even add weight to an argument to accelerate. What optimism would be found in the implications this holds for economic activity, the capital market influence would likely be capped rather quickly. Watch for the short-term, media-driven market response. Then look for the trend.

Euro Rally – How Far Can it Go on ‘No Change’
The Euro climbed against all of its major counterparts with the exception of the Australian dollar this past session. The catalyst for the jump was straightforward: the ECB’s decision to forgo an upgrade in its stimulus program would necessitate a reversal in the discount applied to the currency on the chance that a new wave of support would have been realized. Heading into the meeting, the consensus amongst economists established an approximate 25 percent probability that a rate hike would be announced. Though speculative interests were not directly in line with those assumptions, they weren’t likely far off. Subsequently, a hold necessitated short covering. The question is how much drive a ‘no change’ outcome can muster. With an uptick in the 2014 GDP forecast (to 1.1 percent) and downtick in its CPI view (to 1.0 percent), there is still plenty of room for ‘negative risks’ to spur the ECB into action. Ultimately, this is a passive action, so traders will seek out more.

Yen Crosses Finally Charge Higher but Still Trailing S&P 500
The yen crosses soared Thursday with the funding currency dropping between 0.8 percent (USDJPY) and 1.9 percent (AUDJPY) against its major counterparts. This was certainly a ‘risk on’ reflection. Though global equities offered limited moral support, the Deutsche Bank Carry Harvest Index surged to a near four-month high while emerging markets heaved higher. Appetite for yield is a powerful catalyst for the yen pairings, and there is room to close with more stretched benchmarks like the S&P 500. Yet, it is still wise to watch the Nikkei 225 for guidance.

British Pound Bypasses BoE, Moves on to Inflation Forecast Update
As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) left its monetary policy objectives untouched at its policy meeting Thursday. Without an update, there would be no commentary for industrious speculators to ferret out forecasts. That said, the 10-year UK gilt yield (an important lead for the pound rate forecasts) did jump sharply Thursday. Perhaps today’s BoE/GfK inflation forecast report will offer more to work with.

New Zealand Dollar Positioning at Extraordinary Levels
Retail FX traders positioning is reflecting a staggering imbalance on NZDUSD exposure. For every one long trade amongst the speculative ranks, there are 19 shorts. There is evidence to suggest extremes in positioning correlate to extremes in price, but those excesses can build before folding. Next week, we have the RBNZ rate decision which is expected to deliver the groups firs hike in a projected two-year regime.

Canadian Dollar Closes Out Week with Jobs Data, Volatility?
Manufacturing activity growth in Canada unexpectedly accelerated last month according to the Ivey PMI survey. That’s a notable economic development, but it doesn’t carry the clout necessary to dislodge the loonie’s passive tracking of its US counterpart. The upcoming docket may find better success. February employment figures and January trade statistics are two key pieces of data.

Emerging Markets From Panic to Multi-Month Highs in a Week
At the beginning of the week, the emerging markets were returning to a sense of panic with the segment’s currencies tumbling versus the dollar and volatility soaring. How things have changed, as we now find USDZAR at two month lows while USDBRL is finding its own three-month trough. These currencies are sensitive to risk trends, but are not in the line of site for crisis (like Ukraine and Venezuela).

Gold Rallies Back to $1,350 but Doesn’t Progress Further
With a distinct tumble in the US dollar, gold would reap the benefits of a cheaper pricing instrument. The metal jumped 1 percent back to $1,350, but priced in euros or Australian dollars the progress was significantly mitigated. The gold drive we are seeing now is not the same from four years ago. This is not a need for fiat alternatives, rather it seems a bid for ‘cheap’ assets. Like most other assets, that requires steady risk.

What is Forex Trading? Euro vs the Dollar

Compare this to the New York Stock Exchange, which has a daily turnover of around US$50 billion and it’s easy to see how the foreign exchange market is the biggest financial market in the world.

Essentially, forex trading is the act of simultaneously buying one currency while selling another, primarily for the purpose of speculation. Currency values rise (appreciate) and fall (depreciate) against each other due to a number of factors including economics and geopolitics. The common goal of forex traders is to profit from these changes in the value of one currency against another by actively speculating on which way forex prices are likely to turn in the future.

Unlike most financial markets, the OTC (over-the-counter) forex market has no physical location or central exchange and trades 24-hours a day through a global network of businesses, banks and individuals. This means that currency prices are constantly fluctuating in value against each other, offering multiple trading opportunities.

24-Hour Forex Trading

One of the key elements behind forex’s popularity is the fact that forex markets are open 24-hours a day from Sunday evening through to Friday night. Trading follows the clock, opening on Monday morning in Wellington, New Zealand, progressing to Asian trade spearheaded out of Tokyo and Singapore, before moving to London and closing on Friday evening in New York.

The fact that prices are available to trade 24 hours a day helps to ensure that price gapping (when a price jumps from one level to the next without trading in between) is less and ensures that traders can take a position whenever they want, regardless of time, though in truth there are certain ‘lull’ times when volumes are below their daily average which can widen market spreads.

Leverage

Foreign exchange is a leveraged (or margined) product, which means that you are only required to deposit a small percentage of the full value of your position to place a forex trade. This means that the potential for profit, or loss, from an initial capital outlay is significantly higher than in traditional trading. Find out more about risk management.

Pricing

All forex is quoted in terms of one currency versus another. Each currency pair has a ‘base’ currency and a ‘counter’ currency. The base currency is the currency on the left of the currency pair and the counter currency is on the right.

For example, in EUR/USD, EUR is the ‘base’ currency and USD the ‘counter’ currency. Forex price movements are triggered by currencies either appreciating in value (strengthening) or depreciating in value (weakening). If the price of EUR/USD for example was to fall, this would indicate that the counter currency (US dollars) was appreciating, whilst the base currency (Euros) was depreciating.

When trading forex prices, you would buy a currency pair if you believed that the base currency will strengthen against the counter currency. Alternatively, you would sell a currency pair if you believed that the base currency will weaken in value against the counter currency. Some examples of major currency pairs are:

EUR/USD (The value of 1 EUR expressed in US dollars)
USD/CHF (The value of 1 USD expressed in Swiss francs)

Pips (Percentage in Points)

Pip stands for Percentage in Points. Most of our currency pairs are quoted to 5 decimal places with the change from the 4th decimal place (0.0001) in price commonly referred to as a ‘pip’. For example, if the price of the EUR/USD forex pair moved from 1.33800 to 1.33920, it is said to have climbed by 12 ‘pips’ (92-80=12).

Spread

The difference in the BID/ASK of the currency pairs is referred to as the ‘spread’. An example would be EUR/USD dealing at 1.33800/1.33808 (in this case the spread is 0.8 pips or 0.00008). The exceptions to this are the JPY pairs which are quoted to just 2 decimal places. A USD/JPY price of 97.41/97.44 displays a 3 pip ‘spread’.

What affects forex prices?

Forex prices are influenced by a multitude of different factors, from international trade or investment flows to economic or political conditions. This is what makes trading forex so interesting and exciting. High market liquidity means that prices can change rapidly in response to news and short-term events, creating multiple trading opportunities for retail forex traders.

Forex Technical Analysis 13.03.2014 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD)

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Euro is moving upwards; market has broken another consolidation channel upwards and continues growing up. We think, today price may reach level of 1.3990, stat new correction, and then continue its ascending movement towards level of 1.4100.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Pound is moving inside consolidation channel; market has reached minimum of this correction. We think, today price may continue moving upwards. However, we should note, that according to main scenario, pair is expected to fall down to reach level of 1.6480 and only after that continue growing up to reach level of 1.7000.

forex

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc reached level of 0.8730 and right now is moving downwards. We think, today price may form another consolidation channel near level of 0.8730 and then to continue forming descending structure to reach level of 0.8300.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

forex

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

forex

What is Forex Trading?

Foreign exchange, commonly known as ‘Forex’ or ‘FX’, is the exchange of one currency for another at an agreed exchange price on the over-the-counter (OTC) market. Forex is the world’s most traded market, with an average turnover in excess of US$4 trillion per day.

What is Forex Trading? Euro vs the Dollar

Compare this to the New York Stock Exchange, which has a daily turnover of around US$50 billion and it’s easy to see how the foreign exchange market is the biggest financial market in the world.

Essentially, forex trading is the act of simultaneously buying one currency while selling another, primarily for the purpose of speculation. Currency values rise (appreciate) and fall (depreciate) against each other due to a number of factors including economics and geopolitics. The common goal of forex traders is to profit from these changes in the value of one currency against another by actively speculating on which way forex prices are likely to turn in the future.

Unlike most financial markets, the OTC (over-the-counter) forex market has no physical location or central exchange and trades 24-hours a day through a global network of businesses, banks and individuals. This means that currency prices are constantly fluctuating in value against each other, offering multiple trading opportunities.

24-Hour Forex Trading

One of the key elements behind forex’s popularity is the fact that forex markets are open 24-hours a day from Sunday evening through to Friday night. Trading follows the clock, opening on Monday morning in Wellington, New Zealand, progressing to Asian trade spearheaded out of Tokyo and Singapore, before moving to London and closing on Friday evening in New York.

The fact that prices are available to trade 24 hours a day helps to ensure that price gapping (when a price jumps from one level to the next without trading in between) is less and ensures that traders can take a position whenever they want, regardless of time, though in truth there are certain ‘lull’ times when volumes are below their daily average which can widen market spreads.

Leverage

Foreign exchange is a leveraged (or margined) product, which means that you are only required to deposit a small percentage of the full value of your position to place a forex trade. This means that the potential for profit, or loss, from an initial capital outlay is significantly higher than in traditional trading. Find out more about risk management.

Pricing

All forex is quoted in terms of one currency versus another. Each currency pair has a ‘base’ currency and a ‘counter’ currency. The base currency is the currency on the left of the currency pair and the counter currency is on the right.

For example, in EUR/USD, EUR is the ‘base’ currency and USD the ‘counter’ currency. Forex price movements are triggered by currencies either appreciating in value (strengthening) or depreciating in value (weakening). If the price of EUR/USD for example was to fall, this would indicate that the counter currency (US dollars) was appreciating, whilst the base currency (Euros) was depreciating.

When trading forex prices, you would buy a currency pair if you believed that the base currency will strengthen against the counter currency. Alternatively, you would sell a currency pair if you believed that the base currency will weaken in value against the counter currency. Some examples of major currency pairs are:

EUR/USD (The value of 1 EUR expressed in US dollars)
USD/CHF (The value of 1 USD expressed in Swiss francs)

Pips (Percentage in Points)

Pip stands for Percentage in Points. Most of our currency pairs are quoted to 5 decimal places with the change from the 4th decimal place (0.0001) in price commonly referred to as a ‘pip’. For example, if the price of the EUR/USD forex pair moved from 1.33800 to 1.33920, it is said to have climbed by 12 ‘pips’ (92-80=12).

Spread

The difference in the BID/ASK of the currency pairs is referred to as the ‘spread’. An example would be EUR/USD dealing at 1.33800/1.33808 (in this case the spread is 0.8 pips or 0.00008). The exceptions to this are the JPY pairs which are quoted to just 2 decimal places. A USD/JPY price of 97.41/97.44 displays a 3 pip ‘spread’.

What affects forex prices?

Forex prices are influenced by a multitude of different factors, from international trade or investment flows to economic or political conditions. This is what makes trading forex so interesting and exciting. High market liquidity means that prices can change rapidly in response to news and short-term events, creating multiple trading opportunities for retail forex traders.

US dollar under pressure again overnight lifting weight off the Aussie dollar

What a strange market we have at the moment as concerns over China which drove Asian and European stocks sharply lower washed away by the time US trader entered the fray. How it is that the US markets could so easily shrug off the negativity with prices recovering their early weakness I just don’t understand.

Anyway at the close the Dow was down 0.07% while the S&P 500 was flat at 1,868. The Nasdaq was however in the black rising 0.37%.

In Europe the FTSE fell 0.97%, the DAX fell 1.28% and the CAC dropped 1.01%. Stocks in Milan and madrid were 0.25% and 0.92% lower respectively.

Locally on the ASX futures trade overnight the march SPI 200 contract is up 2 points but well off yesterdays lows at 5372 bid.

On global FX markets the US dollar lost some ground with the Euro and Yen stronger and the Aussie recoverying very well from the weakness yesterday that took it down to 0.8822. This morning Euro is up 0.33% to 1.3905, GBP is flat at 1.6618 and USDJPY is down 0.30% to 102.69.

Incredibly the Aussie is also up on the day at 0.8988 for a gain of 0.14% and it is going to be a very big day today for the Aussie after that recovery with the employment numbers released today at 11.30am AEDT.

Whether in the US or here in Australia the employment report is the number one market watched statistic released each month. This is kind of strange in many ways because it is the stat which is prone to the most error and has the broadest standard deviation relative to the number the market is looking for.

So it’s a number I learnt 25 years ago not to punt – but it is a number that is likely to cause the market to move afterwards. So lets look at the setup.

The pink line you can see on the 4 hour chart above is the daily uptrend from the low in January. yesterday’s break was decisive and the Aussie ran down to a low of 0.8922 but the rally has been very solid. 0.8993 was the overnight high and the fast moving average on this 4 hour chart which often works as resistance. A break will open a small run to 0.9003 and if 0.9013 gives way the Aussie might roar again.

On commodities copper for March deliver lost 0.31% to $3.02 lb which together with the fall of 1.84% in Nymex Crude for march to $98.14 (on a huge 6 million barrell build) suggests the US and global growth outlook continues to be rerated. Gold rallied $20 or 1.51% to $1366

Gold is still solidly in its uptrend and while it’s tight up progress continues and the fast moving average continues to support on any pullbacks.

Top of the channel is $1388 support $1333.

On the Ags corn rallied 1.31%, wheat roared 3.73% but Soybeans sold off 2.11%. Continuing the Ag volatility Oats rallied 4.7% and have made up all the ground lost earlier in the week.

On the data front today Austalia’s biggest number for the month will be released at 11.30 when the ABS announced the employment report. The market is expecting some payback after the last 2 month’s fall with an expectation of a rise of 18,000 jobs and the unemployment rate stable at 6%.

Chinese retail sales and industrial production might overshadow this data a little when released and this afternoon and then tonight’s inflation data in the EU is likely to focus traders about what is happening with deflation in the Eurozone. In the US its jobless claims, new housing price index and very importantly retail sales.

Why 95% of Investors Fail at Futures and Forex

What does it take to be successful in life? Do we emulate the worst people, or do we emulate the best? When it comes to trading futures and forex, it seems easy to emulate the worst. Those who have heard about futures and forex trading usually hear it from family members or acquaintances who failed at it. While it is good to keep an open mind, the negativity of the unsuccessful can weigh heavily for those starting out or for those who have experience but still lack a grasp of the basics of how the futures and forex markets work.

There are a myriad of reasons why 95% of traders fail, ranging from undercapitalization or overcapitalization to not being familiar with the vocabulary, bringing old stock ideas into trading decisions, and misunderstanding gambling and speculation. The following chapters will shed light on why 95% of investors fail in their transition to trading futures and forex and more importantly how you can become one of the 5% that can take control of their futures and forex trading, leading them to success.

Becoming one of the elite 5% is easier said than done. That is why you must learn to separate your individual trading experience from your overall trading goals. You will sometimes find yourself losing right along with the other 95% of traders. You won’t be able to make heads or tails of the market. What will make the difference is not the loss but how you have prepared for the loss and how you react.

The World of Futures and Forex

While today’s futures and forex markets are the hottest news items, with the weak dollar, increasing oil prices, and gold making headlines every other day, it has not always been this way. Each of these markets was born out of the necessity of their times.

Forward contracts, the precursor to the futures markets, can be dated as far back as Phoenician times. In sixteenth-century Japan, we see a fully operational rice futures exchange that was functional and had a tremendous impact on the local economy. The countries that adopted forward contracts and later futures contracts, all had one thing in common: strong commodity economies that were impacted by time in some form or fashion.

The same occurred in the forex market. While foreign currency trading is a relatively new phenomenon, approximately 30 years in the making, it also came of age out of the need to accurately reflect the value of various burgeoning economies around the world.

So when the world was smaller, particularly after the end of World War II, import and export numbers were negligible and thus free-floating currencies were not as important. The moment that the world began to catch up with the United States in manufacturing and exporting goods, so did the need to accurately use currencies to reflect the strength or weakness of a country and then measure their goods and services accordingly.

List of All Forex Currency Pairs According to Major, Exotic and Precious Metals

This article presents a list of all the Forex currency pairs. The currency pairs are grouped according to major, exotic, precious, and correlated pairs.

Forex currency pairs are the integral instruments being traded in Forex. They are also called securities. In Forex unlike stocks and commodities, the security or trading instruments are paired in a BUY/SELL or SELL/BUY pattern. For example the Forex currency pair EURUSD technically would mean buy the Euro and sell the Dollar or sell the EUR and buy the Dollar. Profits are made when the EUR for example is bought at 1.4500 dollars and later sold at 2.4950 dollars (i.e. buy EURUSD at $1.4500 and later sell when EUR is $2.4950) This is where the slogan “Buy LOW and Sell HIGH” comes in.

A lot of traders often do not know the Forex currency pairs available in Forex. Most traders would have been more successful only if they diversify their strategies to include other currency pairs.

Other details such as swaps, spreads, or currency pip range are not included in the list as they are broker specifics, and they are dynamic in nature.

FOREX CURRENCY PAIRS

1. All Forex Currency Pairs (ordered alphabetically)

S/N FX PAIR

1. AUDCAD – Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar

2. AUDCHF – Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc

3. AUDJPY – Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen

4. AUDNZD – Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar

5. AUDUSD – Australian Dollar/US Dollar

6. CADCHF – Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc

7. CADJPY – Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen

8. CHFJPY – Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen

9. EURAUD – Euro/Australian Dollar

10. EURCAD – Euro/Canadian Dollar

11. EURCHF – Euro/Swiss Franc

12. EURDKK – Euro/Danish Krone

13. EURGBP – Euro/Great Britain Pound

14. EURHUF – Euro/Hungarian Forint

15. EURJPY – Euro/Japanese Yen

16. EURNZD – Euro/New Zealand Dollar

17. EURPLN – Euro/Polish Zloty

18. EURUSD – Euro/US Dollar

19. GBPAUD – Great Britain Pound/Australian Dollar

20. GBPCAD – Great Britain Pound/Canadian Dollar

21. GBPCHF – Great Britain Pound/Swiss Franc

22. GBPJPY – Great Britain Pound/Japanese Yen

23. GBPNZD – Great Britain Pound/Australian Dollar

24. GBPUSD – Great Britain Pound/US Dollar

25. NZDCAD – New Zealand Dollar/Canadian Dollar

26. NZDCHF – New Zealand Dollar/Swiss Franc

27. NZDJPY – New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen

28. NZDUSD – New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar

29. USDCAD – US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

30. USDCHF – US Dollar/Swiss Franc

31. USDDKK – US Dollar/Danish Kronor

32. USDHKD – US Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar

33. USDHUF – US Dollar/Hungarian Forint

34. USDJPY – US Dollar/Japanese Yen

35. USDNOK – US Dollar/Norwegian Kronor

36. USDPLN – US Dollar/Polish Zloty

37. USDRON – US Dollar/Romanian Lei

38. USDSEK – US Dollar/Swedish Kronor

39. USDSGD – US Dollar/Singapore Dollar

40. USDTRY – US Dollar/Turkish Lira

41. USDZAR – US Dollar/South Africa Rand

42. ZARJPY – South African Rand/Japanese Yen

2. Forex Currency – Major Pairs

These are the major pairs predominantly traded in Forex. In an economic view, these pairs dominate the financial world due to their political, and financial might. An undesirable economic shock on either of these pairs can send ripple effects that would affect the world economy. These pairs are also known for their high volatility.

S/N FX PAIR

1. EURUSD – Euro/US Dollar

2. USDJPY – US Dollar/Japanese Yen

3. GBPUSD – Great Britain Pound/US Dollar

4. GBPJPY – Great Britain Pound/Japanese Yen

5. EURGBP – Euro/Great Britain Pound

6. EURJPY – Euro/Japanese Yen

7. USDCHF – US Dollar/Swiss France

3. Forex Currency Exotic Pairs

These are rarely traded pairs with low volumes, market depth, and very high bid/ask spread rate. They are expensive pairs to trade with due to their high spread rates.

S/N FX PAIR

1. USDDKK – US Dollar/Danish Kronor

2. USDHKD – US Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar

3. USDHUF – US Dollar/Hungarian Forint

4. USDJPY – US Dollar/Japanese Yen

5. USDNOK – US Dollar/Norwegian Kronor

6. USDPLN – US Dollar/Polish Zloty

7. USDRON – US Dollar/Romanian Lei

8. USDSEK – US Dollar/Swedish Kronor

9. USDSGD – US Dollar/Singapore Dollar

10. USDTRY – US Dollar/Turkish Lira

11. USDZAR – US Dollar/South Africa Rand

12. EURDKK – Euro/Danish Krone

13. EURHUF – Euro/Hungarian Forint

14. EURPLN – Euro/Polish Zloty

15. EURNZD – Euro/New Zealand Dollar

16. ZARJPY – South African Rand/Japanese Yen

4. Forex Currency – Correlated Pairs

Correlated pairs are currency pairs that have similar price patterns, movement, reactions, and price action. Therefore it is not wise to trade some of these pairs at the same time because it would multiply the risk in your account when the market goes against you. Also it would be disastrous to trade some of these pairs at the same time because they move against themselves. For example if there is a sell signal on the EURUSD, then it is 95% likely that the same signal would appear on the GBPUSD but not likely with the same intensity.

S/N FX PAIR

1. EURUSD – Euro/US Dollar

2. EURGBP – Euro/Great Britain Pound

3. USDCHF – US Dollar/Swiss Franc

4. USDJPY – US Dollar/Japanese Yen

5. AUDNZD – Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar

6. AUDUSD – Australian Dollar/US Dollar

7. GBPJPY – Great Britain Pound/Japanese Yen

8. GBPUSD – Great Britain Pound/US Dollar

9. EURJPY – Euro/Japanese Yen

10. AUDJPY – Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen

11. NZDJPY – New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen

5. Forex Metals

These are assets in form of gold and silver. Their unique nature makes them an appetite for investment through stocks or commodity market. These precious metals are also used as currency tender and materials for producing high quality jewelries. Some country’s monetary power is backed up by the amount of gold in their reserve.

S/N FX PAIR

1. XAUEUR – Gold/Euro Spot

2. XAUUSD – Gold Spot

3. XAGEUR – Silver/Euro Spot

4. XAGUSD – Silver Spot

Como Invertir en Forex Siendo un Principiante

Muchas personas opinan que no se puede ganar dinero en el mercado de divisas, también conocido como mercado Forex. Este planteamiento puede haber sido el resultado de una mala experiencia y muestra que estas personas no han estado utilizando la estrategia adecuada, en especial cuando hablamos de un principiante en la materia.

Reglas básicas del inversionista de Forex

Considerando que el mercado de divisas es el más líquido y volátil de cuantos existen, todo principiante de Forex debe ante todo acatar al pie de la letra las reglas básicas al momento de invertir:

a- No invertir nunca más dinero del que pueda permitirse perder y nunca endeudarse para acceder a este mercado.

b- Limitar y moderar el riesgo en cada inversión y sobretodo no deslumbrarse por altos apalancamientos (superiores a 20:1) en busca de mayores beneficios. Generar ganancias de un 3% a 8% mensual es más que suficiente. Exigirle más ingresos a este negocio es arriesgarse a perder el capital inicial.

c- Sólo invertir en cuentas administradas por expertos en trading. No invertir por cuenta propia, en especial si el inversionista no dispone del tiempo o la experiencia suficiente para analizar el mercado y tomar las decisiones correctas o no cuenta con un software e indicadores financieros de apoyo apropiados, que sean rápidos, asertivos y eficientes.

d- Siempre diversificar la inversión distribuyendo el capital en diferentes cuentas… pero hacerlo de manera inteligente y a través de los traders y brokers acreditados.

Las verdaderas Cuentas de Forex Administradas

Una vez que el principiante tiene claro estas reglas básicas, viene la siguiente etapa que es poder reconocer una verdadera Cuenta de Forex Administrada (Managed Forex Account) de la gran cantidad de programas fraudulentos que existen en Internet.

Las cuentas de Forex pueden ser administradas por brokers o por traders que entregan las instrucciones de compra y venta a un broker. No obstante, considerando que por definición el broker cobra por cada transacción realizada (spread), sin importar si el cliente gana o pierde dinero, estimamos que ningún broker, por acreditado que sea, dispone de los requisitos apropiados para administrar cuentas de Forex. De hecho, es fácil observar cómo los rendimientos generados por estas empresas a menudo dejan mucho que desear.

Si bien la elección del broker es importante, el principiante primero debe volcar su atención en seleccionar a los traders adecuados para que administren su capital.

Por regla general, no se debe confiar en ningún trader que ofrezca altos ingresos mensuales con porcentajes fijos. Menos aún si el trader solicita que el dinero sea depositado directamente en una cuenta perteneciente a su misma empresa. El 99,9% de estos casos son fraudes o engaños, en donde el cliente no tiene control ni poder alguno sobre su dinero y termina perdiéndolo todo. Este tipo de ofertas forma parte del mundo de los HYIP (High Yield Investment Programs) que se deben evitar si se pretende ser serio y vivir de este negocio.

Un verdadero trader de Forex, tenga buenos o malos resultados, opera enviando señales de trading a un broker independiente que se encuentra debidamente acreditado. El brokers es la entidad que finalmente acata las órdenes del trader y realiza las transacciones. En este caso el capital del inversionista nunca pasa por manos del trader. El dinero es depositado por el cliente en una cuenta abierta con un broker acreditado, quién garantiza el saldo existente en ella mediante el apoyo de la Reserva Federal Estadounidense o entidad del país que corresponda.

Luego, el inversionista autoriza al trader para que administre su cuenta personal o empresarial mediante un Poder de Carácter Limitado (Limited Power of Attorney o LPOA). De este modo, el trader sólo puede enviar al broker las señales (ordenes) de compra o venta de las divisas, pero nunca podrá sacar el dinero de la cuenta de su cliente. Es importante asegurarse que el broker y el trader no estén relacionados a fin de garantizar el buen funcionamiento y rentabilidad del sistema.

De este modo, si la estrategia que el trader ha utilizado no cumple con lo esperado, el inversionista puedes revocar el Poder entregado y desincorporar al trader de su cuenta de Forex en cualquier momento, enviando una simple orden al broker.

Cómo seleccionar una Cuenta de Forex Administrada

Una de las claves de este negocio, en especial cuando se trata de cuentas de Forex administradas, es contar con traders profesionales, que utilicen una estrategia clara, efectiva y que generen buenos resultados en el mediano a largo plazo.

Mientras más información el inversionista pueda obtener del trader mayor será su probabilidad de encontrar cuentas de Forex administradas que sean rentables.

Debido a que el mercado Forex es altamente volátil, muchos traders se niegan a entregar información histórica argumentando que los resultados pasados no garantizan los mismos resultados futuros. Por ello es preciso que el inversionista insista en la solicitud a fin de conocer mejor la estrategia de trading que será utilizada con su capital, evaluar los riesgos implicados y definir la flexibilidad y capacidad de adaptación del trader frente a cambios inesperados en las tendencias de mercado. La información básica que debe solicitar todo inversionista incluye los siguientes puntos, que luego serán explicados con mayor detalle:

1- Años de experiencia del trader en el mercado de divisas.

2- Porcentaje de la cuenta que es invertido (arriesgado) en cada transacción.

3- Apalancamientos utilizados.

4- Porcentaje de transacciones exitosas en su historial.

5- Ratio entre ganancias y pérdidas.

6- Número de transacciones diarias o semanales realizadas.

7- Pares de divisas transados.

8- “Stop loss” y “limites” utilizados.

9- Broker acreditado e independiente con el que trabaja.

10- Sistema de trading utilizado.

11- Tipo de comisión cobrada por el trader.

1- Un trader con varios años de experiencia en el mercado de divisas entrega mayor seguridad de que utilizará una estrategia para generar ganancias en el mediano y largo plazo, sin tomar riesgos excesivos. Además, tal como expresa el dicho “el diablo sabe más por viejo que por diablo”, el trader experimentado sabe afrontar mejor un mal día dada la mayor probabilidad de que haya pasado varias veces por uno.

2- El porcentaje del capital total que es invertido (arriesgado) en la compra y venta de divisas es otro factor importante para definir el grado de riesgo que se estará asumiendo. Una buena estrategia es utilizar un reducido porcentaje del capital existente en la cuenta, del orden de un 5% hasta un máximo de 30% del total, con el propósito de no arriesgar todo el capital de una sola vez y poder invertir repetidas veces la misma cantidad.

3- Del mismo modo, es altamente recomendable que el trader utilice siempre un apalancamiento moderado, inferior a 20:1, siendo mucho más recomendable un apalancamiento entre 1:1 y 5:1.

Por ejemplo, supongamos que el cliente tiene 10,000 dólares en su cuenta, y el trader coloca el 10% del capital, es decir 1,000 dólares. Si utiliza un apalancamiento de 20:1 significa que el broker le prestará al cliente 20 veces esta cantidad, la que se transforma en 20,000 dólares. Si en la compra y venta de las divisas se genera una ganancia del 0,5%, el inversionista habrá ganado 100 dólares, lo que corresponde a un 10% de los 1,000 dólares y sólo a un 1% del total existente en la cuenta Forex, es decir de los 10,000 dólares. Así obtendría un total en su cuenta de 10,100 dólares. Si bien no es mucho dinero, la suma de varias transacciones puede generar frecuentemente ganancias superiores a un 5% mensual, aún descontando las comisiones por administración del trader y las comisiones del broker.

Ahora, veamos la ventaja que esto tiene cuando se producen pérdidas. Si en el caso anterior el cliente hubiese perdido el 0,85% del dinero transado, entonces estaría reduciendo su capital en 170 dólares, es decir perdería el 17,0% de los 1,000 dólares, lo que correspondería al 1,7% del capital existente en su cuenta Forex. De ese modo, en su cuenta aún dispondría de 9,830 dólares, por lo que podría volver a invertir 1,000 dólares y recuperar su dinero en las siguientes transacciones.

Si en este caso el trader hubiese empleado una estrategia arriesgada y descuidada, utilizando el 100% de su capital y un apalancamiento de 100:1, el resultado sería desastroso. Se habrían invertido los 10,000 dólares del cliente que apalancados se transformarían en 1,000,000 de dólares. En este escenario una pérdida de un 0,85% correspondería a la cantidad de 8,500 dólares. Es decir que la pérdida alcanzaría el 85% del capital total y sólo le quedarían 1,500 dólares para intentar recuperar su inversión original.

4 y 5- En el mercado Forex las ganancias se valoran en pips o puntos. El pip (acrónimo de Price Interest Point) es la unidad más pequeña de las divisas Forex. Para cada divisa, el valor de un pip equivale a 0.0001 de la unidad del precio de la divisa, con excepción del Yen Japonés, que por ser una divisa de 2 décimos, el pip equivale a 0.01 de la unidad del precio de la divisa.

Considerando que las monedas son operadas en grandes lotes de 100,000 dólares por ejemplo, el valor de los pequeños movimientos puede generar importantes ganancias o pérdidas. En un lote de 100.000 dólares, un pip equivale a 10 dólares, de manera que un aumento de 40 pips puede generar una ganancia o pérdida de $400 (USD).

Un mini lote consiste de 10,000 unidades, donde el pip tiene un valor de 1 dólar, pero la mayoría de las operaciones se ejecutan utilizando los lotes estándar.

Considerando estas variaciones diarias, es útil conocer el porcentaje de transacciones exitosas en el historial del trader y saber el ratio entre las ganancias y las pérdidas.

No sirve de mucho que un trader tenga un alto porcentaje de transacciones exitosas si estas generan ganancias muy pequeñas en relación con las pérdidas. Por ejemplo, si tenemos un 70% de transacciones exitosas con una ganancia promedio de 10 pips por transacción y el 30% de transacciones restantes generan pérdidas promedio de 30 pips por transacción (ratio de 0,33:1), entonces obtendremos resultados negativos al final del mes. Si por el contrario tenemos un ratio positivo de 2:1 y sólo un 40% de transacciones exitosas, significa que el resultado generado sería positivo al final del mes.

Ahora bien, lo ideal es encontrar un trader cuyo ratio entre sus ganancias y sus pérdidas sea en promedio superior a 1,2:1 y que a la vez su porcentaje de transacciones exitosas sea superior a un 53%. Con un apalancamiento moderado, mientras más altos sean estas dos variables, mayor será la probabilidad de generar utilidades todos los meses.

6- Si bien la meta de todo trader es comprar barato para vender caro, otro factor a tomar en cuenta es el número de transacciones promedio diarias, semanales o mensuales que realiza. Si el número de transacciones diarias es demasiado elevado (“scalping”), es posible que el negocio termine siendo mucho menos rentable de lo esperado debido a que todos los brokers cobran a sus clientes una comisión en cada transacción realizada, lo cual podría acabar consumiendo las ganancias obtenidas en el mes y terminar por ser un método contraproducente. Eso claro, dependerá del “spread” (diferencia obligada entre valor de compra y el de venta) cobrado por el broker y del porcentaje de ganancias generado cada mes. Un spread reducido de 1 pip permite realizar una mayor cantidad de transacciones al mes, pero lo habitual es que el broker cobre entre 2 y 4 pips por transacción.

Por otra parte, si el número de transacciones en la semana es demasiado reducido, se corre el riesgo de que el trader no reaccione oportunamente frente a un cambio negativo en las tendencias del mercado generando una pérdida mayor a la deseada. Un buen número se sitúa entre 12 y 30 transacciones al mes.

7- Si el trader te ofrece la posibilidad de invertir en diferentes pares de divisas, recomendamos siempre diversificar la inversión en un mínimo de 3 a 4 pares de divisas diferentes, seleccionando entre los pares más transados tales como USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD y AUD/USD o cualquiera de las otras combinaciones entre estas 7 divisas.

El inversionista debe evaluar cómo el trader se desenvuelve con cada par de divisas y seleccionar la que mejores resultados generen, invirtiendo como mínimo 2,000 dólares en cada par, lo que supone un apalancamiento de 5:1 para mini lotes de 10,000 dólares. Cantidades inferiores significaría apalancamientos más altos y mayor riesgo de pérdida.

8- Definir el “stop loss” adecuado es importante para reducir las pérdidas en una situación adversa, no obstante existen momentos en que las condiciones de mercado impiden al trader vender una divisa cuando se llega al valor mínimo, principalmente debido a la escasez de compradores. Si bien, el “stop loss” no es una garantía que permita evitar en ocasiones pérdidas importantes, en condiciones normales de mercado es recomendable establecer el “stop loss” en un valor cercano a los 25 pips cuando se utilizan apalancamientos inferiores a 5:1.

9- Otro factor importante a considerar es el broker, ya que es la empresa que recibirá el dinero. El broker debe estar acreditado por un organismo internacional de prestigio, pero además es fundamental que dicho broker sea totalmente independiente del trader. Eso garantiza la transparencia de las transacciones y evita manipulaciones indebidas por parte del trader. Para saber si el broker se encuentra acreditado el principiante debe buscar por Internet su número ID y/o nombre en el registro en cualquiera de los siguientes organismos:

- National Futures Association (NFA),

- Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC),

- Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

- Financial Services Authority (FSA).

- Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

- Ontario Securities Commission (OSC).

- Asociación Romanda de Intermediarios Financieros (ARIF).

De este modo tendrá la seguridad que la empresa cumplirá con las leyes vigentes y que no se trata de un estafador o ladrón que pudiera hacer mal uso de su dinero. El cliente no se debe olvidar, sin embargo, de firmar oportunamente los contratos legales entregados por el broker a fin de garantizar sus derechos y el correcto uso de su capital.

10- Un elemento a considerar al momento de seleccionar a un trader es conocer el sistema de trading que utiliza para trabajar. Estos sistemas se pueden clasificar básicamente en 3 categorías:

- Sistemas automatizados (softwares predictivos).

- Traders que utilizan el análisis técnico fundamental e información financiera.

- Sistemas mixtos (traders que son apoyados de softwares).

Existen sistemas muy buenos en estas tres categorías. Sin embargo, el más recomendable es el sistema mixto, por ser más flexible y adaptable a las variaciones del mercado. Es siempre útil contar con avanzados sistemas informáticos que permitan realizar un análisis predictivos utilizando potentes algoritmos matemáticos y cálculos estadísticos. Pero también es recomendable contar con personas que puedan modificar esos algoritmos en caso de necesidad y supervisar el trabajo realizado por los ordenadores a fin de reducir eventuales pérdidas. Es siempre bueno contar con personas de experiencia que tengan una visión crítica y cierto grado de intuición en los negocios.

11- Por último, la comisión cobrada por el trader es un factor relevante para la selección del mismo. Aquellos traders que realizan mejor su trabajo sólo cobran comisiones mensuales en función de las utilidades generadas. Habitualmente las comisiones fluctúan entre un 10% y 50% de las ganancias obtenidas. Lo normal es que si durante un mes determinado se generan pérdidas, el trader no cobre nada hasta recuperarlas por completo.

No obstante lo anterior, existen muchos traders que cobran un spread, además de un porcentaje de las utilidades. Es necesario ser mucho más precavido en estos casos, ya que la mayoría de las veces significa que el trader no está muy seguro de generar resultados constantes en el tiempo, lo cual puede ser la razón para cobrar por transacción realizada o lote transado.

Invertir en Cuentas de Forex Administradas

Al momento de invertir, lo primero que se debe tener en mente es la diversificación. Tal como dice el dicho popular “nunca pongas todos los huevos en la misma canasta”, es altamente recomendable que el inversionista divida su capital en montos iguales para que sean invertidos en Cuentas de Forex Administradas por diferentes traders.

Un total de 4 cuentas administradas es una buena cantidad para comenzar, aunque no siempre se dispone del capital necesario para hacerlo. Habitualmente, para abrir una cuenta administrada se requiere de un mínimo de 10,000 dólares o más, no obstante existen casos en que el mínimo es de 500 a 5,000 dólares. Cualquiera sea la situación, lo recomendables es invertir como mínimo 6,000 dólares por cuenta para invertir en 3 pares de divisas diferentes y utilizar un apalancamiento máximo de 5:1 (lo que equivale a 3 mini lotes de 10,000 dólares).

Con cuatro Cuentas de Forex Administradas es posible generar de manera consistente un promedio de entre 4% y 6% de interés mensual. Si los traders son muy buenos, esa cifra podría elevase a un 8% o 10% de interés mensual. Cada trader utiliza una estrategia diferente de trading, por lo que ninguno obtendrá los mismos resultados bajo las mismas condiciones de mercado. En ocasiones una de las cuentas generará resultados negativos que serán compensados por las ganancias de las otras 3 cuentas. La diversificación del capital permite invertir como si se tratase de un Hedge Fund. Mientras más cuentas administradas sean utilizadas, menor será el riesgo de pérdida y más estables serán las ganancias en el tiempo.

Con un total de 40,000 dólares es posible generar una renta de 2,000 dólares mensuales. Si el inversionista no dispone de tanto dinero, entonces deberá comenzar con un monto menor y reinvertir las ganancias hasta superar dicha suma.